Natalie Baldwin, Kermit Hutson Ukraine Grand chessboard Zbig
2015
Church of the Great Chessboard
CONCLUSIONS
Church of the Great Chessboard
The technotronic era suggests the gradual emergence of a more controlled society. Such a society will be dominated by an elite that is not limited by traditional values. It will soon be possible to organize almost continuous monitoring of each citizen and maintain up-to-date complete files containing even the most personal information about a citizen. These files will be subject to immediate transfer to the authorities.
— Zbigniew Brzezinski, from his book Between Two Ages: America’s Role in the Technotronic Era (1976)
Perhaps the above quote gives some idea of the heart and soul of the highest of the high priests responsible for building the Church of the Great Chessboard.
US foreign policy has indeed become a fundamentalist religion, as defined by the canons of the Grand Chessboard and the monks of its accompanying sect, a blueprint for a new American century. Its priests, priestesses, and monks are fanatics in every way, undeterred by logic, pragmatism, reality, facts, forensic evidence, morality, and even Mutual Assured Destruction (MAD).
The canons of the Church of the Grand Chessboard are simple – the universe revolves around the US (more precisely, its financial elite), and the US is “exceptional”, head and shoulders above all others. Anyone who opposes this belief is a heretic, a pagan, a Hitler, a conspiracy theorist, or a candidate for regime change. In addition, the priests of the Grand Chessboard and their infallible parishioners believe that they are the smartest boys and girls in the world, that only their lives matter (though parishioners can be expendable in a pinch), and that their God , Mammon, does not obey anyone.
Thus neocons and neoliberals are the fanatical high priests and priestesses of an anachronistic doomsday religion that now holds the fate of the world in its hands. And, unfortunately, the Church of the Great Chessboard has the means to bring the world to doomsday. Welcome to the “dark ages”.
One thing that religious fanatics and sectarians fail to grasp over and over again is that the world is a very complex, dynamic, and multivariate system. He is constantly changing. Simply looking at the social, political, and economic interactions that take place between nation-states year after year, these changes are almost impossible to predict. In the same way, if one sticks to a rigid set of ideological models and tries to predict the relationship between nation-states in about two decades, then the chances of a successful prediction (even if one actively works to complete it) will be a non-zero finite sum, approaching zero at the speed of light.
Or, to put it simply, change is inevitable, constant, and part of the natural process of life. Solid models and ideas are like stagnant, stinking pools of evaporating water. They don’t live too long for the world.
Zbigniew Brzezinski’s “Grand Chessboard” is a stasis, a stinking pool, a scheme frozen in time and space that no longer exists. In addition, this has led the West to seek to keep it with untold amounts of treasures, countless lives, incessant geopolitical tricks, pathetic hypocrisy and a universe of lies. And the fanatics who now adhere to and fulfill her commandments are themselves incapable of understanding the horrors to which their faith, beliefs and shameful deeds call.
How do empires fall? How do their fanatical high priests and priestesses leave the stage? Do they gracefully walk off the stage, perhaps like an athlete who knows his time has come? Or are they rushing about to cause unimaginable levels of destruction, suffering and death (bordering on genocide) as they seek to remain imperial?
The US Empire, less than three-quarters of a century old, with its steroidal successor, the US Hyper-Empire, a little over two decades old, is faltering on all fronts. To be sure, the idea of having genuine leaders in the United States—principled, courageous, peaceful, pragmatic, and all-round—is a true conspiracy theory of our time, because such beings do not currently exist.
It seems that the 1 Percent put a lot of effort into developing this conspiracy theory – through serial killings, often quite publicly, and through a variety of other methods that removed real leaders and potential leaders from any and all leadership positions.
On the other hand, the ungodly sums of fiat money that were spent to enforce political slavery, eliminate morality, and de facto mind control nurtured a completely different being – a sociopath, a political whore, devoid of intelligence, integrity, morality, and, above all, common sense. .
As Peter Dale Scott, a former diplomat, Berkeley professor and author of numerous books and articles, suggests, there is an “invisible Empire” that is the true power behind the government that controls most of the world’s resources, the world’s “leaders” and the world’s capital.
President Eisenhower mentioned the culprit, “the military-industrial complex,” although he was advised to remove that mention from his speech to Congress. Perhaps the mention of the banking oligarchs was also removed, and the historical background was completely cleaned of these two references.
Without a doubt, one of the first things that signals the end of an empire is the complete absence of true leaders, the rise of a sociopath as a “leader” and a bunch of people “approving” who are steadily nodding their heads, agreeing with everything and yelling at doubters, happily drinking poisoned Imperial Kool-Aid.
Imperial wars and planned chaos
The ability of the US to continually engage in multiple wars of imperial conquest, looting and plundering assets, and purposefully creating planned chaos has been, and is, reinforced by the dollar’s reserve currency status. If this status is violated by an alternative currency (ruble, yuan, or a basket thereof) now aggressively promoted by Russia and China, the $220 trillion giant red chicks of US financial failure (Lawler 2012) will return home to roost. And non-stop qualitative easing (endless printing of money) will no longer be able to delay the inevitable – economic collapse.
The collateral consequences, of course, will be a metaphorical headshot to various Western zombie banks, the complete collapse of the Western economy, internal chaos and the tragic, albeit powerful, awakening of the Western masses, long in a somnambulant state provided by drugs of debt consumerism, entertainment programming and the media. , hard drugs (legal and illegal) and lies. This may be one of the reasons why the US Department of Homeland Security purchased millions of illegal dum-dum bullets (they burst and make big holes in human bodies) and why the Posse Commitatus was suspended and the Bill of Rights was practically suspended.
What kind of optimistic scenario can be imagined as the result of a Western fiasco as a result of wars unleashed by the West, incessant aggression, destabilization and subsequent chaos – what could it be? It could be a multi-polar world with a constructive approach to international relations, a win-win approach to trade, respect for all life and different approaches to life on this planet.
The pessimistic option, however, is if the US is unwilling to accept the realization of its status as a zombie financial empire and thus go rattling its guns…
World War III
In desperation, dysfunctional Western capitalism is rampaging recklessly and irrationally, unwilling and unable to prevent the catastrophic consequences of its short-sighted policies. And one of the possible consequences of the current US and NATO policy is thermonuclear war.
– Carla Stea “Forgive us for the existence of our country in the middle of your military bases”, Global Research 2014
I remember playing chess with a friend from college who I managed to checkmate for several consecutive games. As I was on my way to winning another game, my friend, not wanting to accept yet another loss, hit the chessboard. The chessmen flew in all directions, as if a bomb had gone off in the middle of a chessboard. It looks like we can all face a similar situation.
As the West gets checkmates for many decades of pilgrimage on the “Grand Chessboard”, and as any semblance of intelligence, realpolitik, morality, diplomacy and sanity in Western capitals has long since died out, will the West destroy the chessboard? Will the West do this, leading to a nuclear confrontation with Russia and its new best friend and strategic partner China?
As Professor Emeritus in the Department of Russian Studies Stephen Cohen explains regarding the possibility of a thermonuclear war between the US and Russia:
If the civil war in Ukraine starts again. military aspect. If the ceasefire fails. If Kiev again attacks the Donbass. If Russia feels the need to help Donbass again by military means, then NATO is discussing the possibility of NATO forces entering Western Ukraine. What will it mean? That would mean American-led NATO troops in western Ukraine, whether on the ground or in the air, it doesn’t matter. Russian troops in the air or on the ground – and this will be a modern version of the Cuban missile crisis. ( Cohen 2014)
During the Cuban missile crisis, the world stood on the brink of thermonuclear war, but then leaders emerged who understood the consequences and took diplomatic initiatives: in the spirit of realpolitik. They clearly understood that talking to the enemy was crucial to negotiating a cessation of hostilities. In contrast, today presidents, prime ministers and secretaries of state sulk, insult and constantly attack their supposed opponents with slander, ad hominem statements, marketing slogans straight from Madison Avenue – “He’s the devil, he’s Hitler, we don’t negotiate with enemies, with terrorists, with people we don’t like.”
Professor Cohen regrets that open discussion with different points of view is completely absent from today’s debate in the US, while the US mainstream media happily sticks to one line.
Unlike the situation 5-20 years ago, when we had real debates and public battles, he said, now we don’t have any public debates with the opposition. I don’t know if they [the mainstream media – [RT]] know the truth and are therefore purposefully hiding the truth, or if they are really bogged down in the myths that have been associated with Russia since the collapse of the Soviet Union. ( Cohen 2014)
Where, indeed, are the voices of reason, sanity and real politics? Neither in the White House, nor in the willing and subordinate media, they are nowhere to be found. And then, of course, there is the US Congress and its latest battle of apparent insanity, the Prevention of Russian Aggression Act (RAPA), which says:
Use all appropriate elements of the national power of the United States … to protect the independence, sovereignty, territorial and economic integrity of Ukraine and other sovereign states of Europe and Eurasia from Russian aggression … [this includes] a significant increase in US and NATO support for the armed forces of the Republics of Poland , Estonia, Lithuania and Latvia … [and] a significant increase in the number of advanced NATO forces in these states.
This is not the reaction of intelligent, sane people to a potential global nuclear conflagration, this is the reaction of madmen, fanatics, sociopaths, high priests and priestesses of a religious cult, eager to be destroyed.
We were eliminated thinking and implanted in the brain, we were taught to be predetermined, not free. And whether consciously or unconsciously, most have become so.
— Edward Curtin, professor of sociology at the Massachusetts College of the Liberal Arts
At one rally, a speaker was forced to change his speech halfway through, and said that Oceania is not at war and never has been at war with Eurasia. The speaker also added that Oceania has always been at war with Eastasia. People were embarrassed that they were carrying Anti-Eurasia signs and accused Emmanuel Goldstein’s agents of sabotage. However, they showed a full-fledged hatred for Eastasia.
– George Orwell, 1984
The first quote comes from a very interesting article called “A Propaganda Trap Soothed by Little Things”. In it, Professor Curtin explains how Americans were programmed twenty-four hours a day, seven days a week to remember and repeat the company line. It is a constancy for us that water for fish always exists and is never questioned or discussed.
The second quote from Orwell’s dystopian saga “1984” finds today’s parallel, when some enemy of the West (Afghanistan, Iraq, Libya, Somalia, Syria, Iran, Russia) is constantly switching to another, right before our eyes.
This is what happens in Ukraine, where innocent aunts and uncles, grandparents, wives and husbands, newborns, children, brothers and sisters were labeled terrorists and killed for the sake of a dead strategy and for the benefit of men and women, much richer , powerful, ignorant, and dangerous to rule anything, let alone the world.
The desire of the West to have more and more at any cost and “everything on its table” has led to its moral, cultural, social and economic bankruptcy and its inevitable decline, now occurring at a speed close to the speed of light.
Russia is turning East with its natural resources, full bank accounts, massive gold reserves, thousands of nuclear missiles and a growing high-tech sector. The bear is embracing the dragon, China, also with vast reserves of gold, bank accounts churning, and its currency increasingly rising to the top.
The East will continue its accelerated rise. The balance of the world will gravitate towards this new magnetic pole and away from the West’s New World Order, its gigantic hypocrisy, war fanaticism, extortionate austerity initiatives and its hyper-gangsterism.
The East, with its new development and investment banks, with a philosophy that offers constructive engagement, geopolitical pragmatism and win-win investment strategies, will be a clear and compelling choice for the world.
The isolation of Russia and China does not materialize from the latest poorly designed gambit of the West and NATO, as their efforts to isolate are based on a seventy-year-old Cold War strategy designed for a world, geostrategic relationship, mindset and time that no longer exists.
The world has changed dramatically over the last quarter of a century. The rise of media opposed to government, alternative media, and the internet has made the world smaller, more transparent, and citizens (at least in some countries) are more aware of the dynamics at play. However, it can be argued that only Karma can see the isolated and powerless West.
The various organizations described above – BRICS, CSTO, SCO and their member countries – are not balls and chains, which were the former satellites of the USSR. All of them are viable independent states that are growing in their respective geographic sectors.
In the wake of political, economic, geostrategic, and military dynamics in 2014, as a direct result of US policy towards Ukraine, and based on our previous arguments, the Grand Chessboard strategy developed and advocated by Zbigniew Brzezinski and company has irrefutably failed. What is undeniable is that its implementation over the past two decades has led to the concrete results it sought to avoid—the fiasco of Western hegemony and the emergence of a multipolar force characterized by a rising East and a fading, indebted and increasingly violent West.
There is a final caveat: if the West cannot awaken from its all-consuming fundamentalist trance, if pragmatism, common sense, morality and decency are left forgotten, then war may break out, whether accidental or purposeful, and, as Albert Einstein presciently stated:
I don’t know with what weapons the third world war will be fought, but the fourth world war will be fought with sticks and stones.
AFTERWORD
The Russians and Chinese have just signed another mega-billion dollar gas contract worth $325 billion, bringing it to three-quarters of a trillion dollars this year. There is no precedent in world history for contracts of this magnitude. Contracts will undoubtedly be conducted in rubles and yuan, which will further displace petrodollar hegemony. This, in turn, will provide a rather impressive turbo-charge to the New Silk Road, while, of course, refuting the “isolation” of Russia and its “economic collapse”.
Elections were held in Western Ukraine on October 26, 2014 and in Eastern Ukraine on November 2, 2014.
The elections in Kiev were widely welcomed in Western capitals, as Kiev’s “pro-Western” parties decided to move west step by step.
However, in the “analysis” and praise that poured from the West, there was no noticeable moment – intimidation, destruction and outright banning of two eastern parties of Ukraine – the Communist Party and the Party of Regions, which for a long time represented the people of Donbass. As noted earlier, various members of these parties have been subjected to intimidation, beatings, public torture and murder. This is, of course, an inconvenient truth that should be suppressed and ignored by Western governments and mainstream Western media.
In addition, as Gilbert Doctorow, a fellow at the American University in Moscow, an author, reporter and one of two members of the European Parliamentary Election Observation Team sent to observe the elections in Kiev, stated, “when they decided to visit the city of Dnepropetrovsk, they witnessed mass cases violence and intimidation” (RT 2104).
About 70 percent took part in the elections held in Donbas on November 2, 2014, almost twice as many as in the United States (36 percent) in the following days. Voters in southeastern Ukraine elected a full slate of representatives with no reports of violence or intimidation.
These elections, however, despite their democratic nature and high turnout, were called in the West, as one would expect, “undemocratic” and “illegal”.
Ironically, what the Euromaidan activists wanted when they led the protests against the Yanukovych government – fairness, lack of corruption, a people-run judiciary – is not at all what they will get as a result of the elections (RT 2014). Instead, they will get more of the same oligarchs, but now sprinkled with neo-Nazis in their Verkhovna Rada.
On the other hand, eastern Ukrainians voted to get rid of the oligarchs, and not a single neo-Nazi was seen or heard from. Fairness, lack of corruption and a people-run judiciary are exactly what the new leadership offered to the people of Donbass.
These are elections that the West consistently considers “illegal,” “illegitimate,” and “militarily provocative.” However, the irony of the West is clearly expressed by Dmitry Linnik, head of the London bureau of the Voice of Russia, who opined on the talk show Cross Talk:
There is one more thing I would like to point out in relation to legitimacy or otherwise. If we could…rewind back to 1999. Recall that the West sought to support the aspirations of Kosovo. Well, the majority of the population is obviously against Belgrade. So what did he [the West] do? It launched a military campaign against Belgrade in order to secure the right of the people of Kosovo to vote for independence. Now, if we draw a parallel with the situation in Ukraine, the course should be towards military action against Kiev, which is suppressing the right of Eastern Ukraine to vote for independence. (RT 2014)
As host, Peter Lavelle commented on the above “well, that would make sense, but Washington doesn’t know logic.” No, it seems that Washington knows only illogicality and cynicism.
Since October, Russia has been forced to deal with a combination of factors that have proved more problematic than the West’s initial sanctions: a precipitous fall in oil prices and a parallel devaluation of the ruble.
As a result, Russians are facing higher inflation and a significant economic slowdown, which is expected to end in recession at least in the first half of 2015 (Weafer 2014). However, as usual, a huge amount of disinformation and hyperbole abounds in the Western media about the implications for Russia. One can almost see the media pundits turning a childish eye and stubbornly wishing that their repeated predictions of Russia’s imminent demise – with Putin dragged out of the Kremlin, swallowing a cyanide capsule – were true.
The first piece of disinformation that comes up, with Paul Krugman as its most notable propagator, is the idea that Russia is dangerously high in debt. However, Krugman did not distinguish between Russian government debt and corporate debt in his analysis. Russia’s current public debt is only $57 billion. The rest of the $377 billion cited by Western commentators and analysts is Russian corporations in which the state has a stake but whose debt the government is not responsible for (Hellevig 2014).
In addition, neither the Russian state nor Russian corporations are in danger of default (Aris 2014). As we have noted throughout this book, Russia has maintained a healthy financial balance sheet, holding $400 billion in international reserves in addition to rainy day funds and budget surpluses. Russia is actually a creditor country in the world.
Another point of disinformation is related to the consequences of the devaluation of the ruble. While low oil prices and a devalued currency are certainly not a good thing for Russia, the fact that they happen in tandem protects the Russian budget and trade balance. Thus, for the foreseeable future, the Russian government will have no difficulty keeping its pension and salary payments in line with inflation, while maintaining Putin’s voting base.
It should also be noted that China and Russia have a currency swap agreement. China has already publicly stated that if the ruble crisis becomes dangerous and if the Russian government asks for it, then China will intervene and strengthen the ruble (Durden 2014).
Putin, for his part, has signaled his opposition to using financial reserves to support the ruble, as well as using capital controls rather than letting the currency float to protect the budget and provide “soft stimulus for domestic producers” who had healthy growth in 2014 (Weafer 2014; Aris 2014).
The Russian government does have some opportunities in this crisis that could be exploited if it plays its cards right, such as supporting the growth of SMEs and domestic manufacturing, as Putin discussed in his 2014 State of the Union Address. But this will require stabilization of the ruble, even if it is at a low level (Aris 2014).
Some wealthy Russians show their support by repatriating assets to Russia and borrowing to invest in import substitution (Reuters 2014; Aris 2014).
The reaction of the Russian people ranged from stoic to sanguine. This is partly due to the fact that they have experienced much greater hardship and suffering in the past, which they have shown to be quite willing to endure when they believe they are being attacked by outside forces. This is also due to the fact that the vast majority of Russians live entirely in the “ruble zone”, having no personal financial relationship with other currencies. In addition, there are government guarantees for deposits much higher than most Russians have in their bank accounts. This is true of the small percentage of Russians who have bank accounts at all, as the majority keep extra money at home (RBTH 2014).
As of December 2014, according to an AP-NORC poll, most Russians still felt their country was headed in the right direction and were optimistic about their personal financial future, while Putin still enjoyed an 81 percent approval rating. (AP-NORC 2014).
But what about the third world war? It seems that the priests and priestesses of the Church of the Great Chessboard can indeed strive to create their own apocalyptic moment of coming to God.
As of November 5, 2014, the Ukrainian army has again begun intensive shelling of Donbass, resulting in a growing number of civilian casualties and damage to infrastructure. As detailed by reporter Graham Phillips:
Yesterday, Kiev resumed the war with continuous shelling of the entire front in the Donbass. In Donetsk, where the shelling never stopped, two children died and four were injured at School No. 63. Others killed in the shelling in Donetsk included a 10-year-old girl and her grandmother. They were destroyed by a direct hit from an artillery shell. (RT 2014)
Readers will not hear this news in the official Western media. Readers will also not be aware that as the war in Ukraine escalates, the likelihood of a third world war also increases. And know this for certain, as a reader, you will not be informed by your President, Prime Minister, Congress or Parliament when a hotspot is reached. Instead, readers will be informed by the “facts” on the ground, as well as those “facts” that explode above their heads.
But…
If the “mad,” as George Herbert Walker Bush called it, fundamentalist high priests and priestesses can be contained, overthrown, removed, there is every possibility that the military authorities (Pentagon, NATO) will be extremely concerned about waging war against a rising and technologically superior Russia.
“Superior? On what basis?
In a little-known event in the Black Sea in April 2014, the West, the United States in this particular case, was shown what the Western military would face if they tried to strike at Russia.
From the article “What scared the USS Donald Cook in the Black Sea so much?” we learn that the strength and power of one of the most advanced ships in the US Navy, the fourth-generation missile destroyer Donald Cook, has been literally outmaneuvered in every way.
But first of all, what are the capabilities of such a ship? The main types of weapons are listed below:
Cruise missiles “Tomahawk” with a range of up to 2500 kilometers, capable of carrying nuclear warheads. This ship has 56 Tomahawk missiles in standard mode and 96 missiles in attack mode. ( Voltaire 2014)
What is its combat system:
…integrated naval weapons systems that can link together the missile defense systems of all ships, united in one network, in order to ensure the detection, tracking and destruction of hundreds of targets at the same time. In addition, the destroyer “Donald Cook” is equipped with 4 large radars, the power of which is comparable to the power of several stations. For protection, it carries more than fifty anti-aircraft missiles of various types. ( Voltaire 2014)
However, on April 12, 2014, a Russian Su-24 tactical bomber, armed only with a Khibiny electronic warfare device (Rossiyskaya Gazeta 2014) mounted under its fuselage, honked at the Donald Cook, leading to the following chain of events:
When the Russian plane approached the ship, it used its electronic device to disable all radars, control circuits, information transmission systems, etc. aboard the American destroyer. In other words, the almighty Aegis system, which is now connected – or will be connected – to the defense systems installed on the most advanced NATO ships, has been turned off like a remote-controlled TV. ( Voltaire 2014)
After that, the Russian Su-24:
… simulated a missile attack on the “Donald Cook”, which remained literally deaf and blind. As if conducting an exercise, the Russian aircraft – unarmed – repeated the same maneuver 12 times before taking off. ( Voltaire 2014)
After the incident:
The 4th generation destroyer immediately went to a port in Romania. Not a single American ship approached Russian territorial waters again. ( Voltaire 2014)
The Pentagon filed a formal complaint. The director of the Russian research center for electronic warfare, Vladimir Balibin, said the following:
The more complex the electronic system, the easier it is to turn it off with the help of electronic warfare. ( Voltaire 2014)
In addition, the military alliance between Russia and China is advancing rapidly. Moscow now shares game-changing weapons systems with Beijing, and Beijing, more technologically savvy than ever, has embarked on its own ambitious program. As Pepe Escobar says in an article, “The American century is over. The Eurasian Age has begun” (Escobar 2014):
The Russian-Chinese symbiotic strategic partnership is expanding noticeably in energy, finance and, which is inevitable, in the military-technical front. This includes, crucially, the sale by Moscow to Beijing of the S-400 and, in the future, S-500 air defense systems.
The S-500 missiles travel at 15,480 miles per hour, have a range of up to 2,174 miles, and are capable of shooting down any ICBM that Washington might launch into Russia. Translation: Russian airspace is closed to any incoming US nuclear ICBMs… Russian Mach 17 ICBMs equipped with MIRVs are simply unbeatable. Beijing, for its part, is already developing its own surface-to-ship missiles that can disable anything the US Navy can assemble, from aircraft carriers to submarines to mobile air defense systems. (Escobar 2014)
Perhaps the Russian bear and the Chinese dragon have more up their sleeves than anyone in the Pentagon and NATO can imagine. Perhaps balance, realpolitik, and common sense will once again be on the scene as the “unknown unknowns” have the potential to change the game at a level far beyond that of the Church of the Grand Chessboard.
Thank you,
Natalie Baldwin and Kermit Hutson
APPENDIX I
Transcript of Nuland and Pyatt’s conversation
Full transcript of a telephone conversation between US Assistant Secretary of State Victoria Nuland and US Ambassador to Ukraine Geoffrey R. Pyatt on February 6, 2014 (Oriental Review 2014):
Victoria Nuland (V.N.): What do you think?
Geoffrey R. Pyatt (J.P.): I think we’re in the game. The figure of Klitschko is obviously the most difficult element here, especially the appointment of him as Deputy Prime Minister. You’ve seen my notes on immediate marriage issues, so we’re trying to get information very quickly on where he is in the state. But I think your argument to him, which you will need to make, I think the next phone call you want to make is exactly the same one you made for Yatz [nickname of Yatsenyuk]. I’m glad you put him in an awkward position. <…> He fits into this scenario. And I’m very glad that he said what he said.
VN: Good. I don’t think Klich [Klitschko’s nickname] should be in the government. I don’t think it’s necessary, I don’t think it’s a good idea.
JP: Yeah, I mean, I think… in terms of him not going into government… I would just let him stay and do his political assignment. I just think that in terms of moving the process forward, we want to keep moderate Democrats together. The problem will be with Tyagnibok and his guys. And, you know, I’m sure that’s part of what Yanukovych is counting on for all this.
VN: I think Yats is what you need. He has economic and managerial experience. He is a decent guy. You know, he needs Klich and Tyagnibok outside. He needs to talk to them four times a week. You know, I just think that if Klitschko comes in and he works at that level for Yatsenyuk, it just won’t work…
JP: Yes, yes, I think that’s right. OK well. Do you want us to call him as the next step?
V.N.: As far as I understood from the call that you told me about, the big three were going to their meeting, and what Yats was going to propose in this context, you know, this is a “three plus one” conversation or a “three plus two” conversation ” with you. Isn’t that how you understood it?
JP: No. I think that was what he suggested, but I think knowing the dynamic that they had where Klitschko was the main dog, he will show up at any meetings they have and he will probably talk with your guys at this time. So, I think you’ll go directly to him, help with personalities management among these three. And it will also give you the ability to move quickly through all these things and put us behind it before they all get together and he will explain why he doesn’t like it.
VN: OK. Okay. I am satisfied. Why don’t you reach out to him and see if he wants to talk before or after.
JP: Okay, I’ll do it. Thank you.
VN: I don’t remember if I told you about this or if I only informed Washington: when I talked to Jeff Feltman this morning, he said the new name of the guy from the UN – Robert Serry. I wrote to you about this this morning.
JP: Yes, I saw it.
VN: OK. Now he has forced both Serry and Ban Ki-moon to agree that Serry will come on Monday or Tuesday. It would be great, I think, to help glue it together and get the UN to help glue it together and, if you like, to hell with the EU.
J.P.:Yes exactly. And I think we have to do something to keep it together, because you can be sure that if it starts to gain altitude, the Russians will be working behind the scenes to try and torpedo it. And again the fact that right now, I’m still trying to figure out why Yanukovych <…> is. In the meantime, a meeting of the Party of Regions faction is underway, and I am sure that a lively debate is going on in this group. But in any case, the sandwich might fall jam-side up if we move fast. So let me work on Klitschko and if you can… I think we just want someone with an international level to come here and help the midwife. Another issue is a kind of propaganda work with Yanukovych, but we will probably regroup for tomorrow, when we see how things start to take shape.
VN: So, Jeff, when I wrote the note, Sullivan came back to me, said that you need Biden, and I said that perhaps tomorrow you will need a smart boy to agree on the details. So Biden agrees.
APPENDIX II
Transcription of a telephone conversation between Paet and Ashton
The following conversation between Estonian Foreign Minister Urmas Paet and Catherine Ashton, High Representative of the Union for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy of the European Union, appears to have been made public by the Security Service of Ukraine. In a conversation, Paet and Ashton discuss the shooting of snipers on the Maidan. Paet believes that, based on the information he received during the visit, the new Ukrainian government is the responsible party.
DIALOGUE WITHOUT INITIAL CONNECTIONS:
Catherine Ashton: Hello.
Urmas Paet: Hello.
Ashton: Hello, how are you?
Paet: I’m fine
Ashton: Okay.
Paet: And you?
Ashton: Okay. Things are good. I just wanted to talk to you about what you thought when you were there.
Paet: Okay, yes. I returned last night already, so I was there one day.
Ashton: Yes. Impressions?
Paet: Sad impressions.
Ashton: Hmmm.
Paet: I met with representatives of the Party of Regions [originally the party of Yanukovych, but by this time it had dissociated itself from him], also with new representatives of the coalition, as well as with representatives of civil society [Ukrainian non-governmental organizations or NGOs]. There is a lady named Olga [Dr. Olga Bogomolets, who looked after the wounded protesters], who is the head of the doctors. Yes Yes. Do you know her?
Ashton: Yes.
Paet: Yes, so, well, I have a really sad impression that there is no trust in these politicians who will now return to the coalition. Well, people from the Maidan and from civil society say they know everyone who will be in the new government – all these guys have a dirty past.
Ashton: Yes.
Paet: So, they made several proposals to the same Olga and some other representatives of civil society to join the new government. But this Olga, for example, directly says that she is ready to go to the government only if she can bring her team of foreign experts with her to start real healthcare reforms.
Ashton: Yes.
Paet: So, in principle, the level of trust is absolutely low. On the other hand, all the problems of security, problems of integrity, Crimea, all this. The Party of Regions was absolutely upset. They say that, well, they accept, they accept that there will be a new government now. And there will be external elections. But there is a huge pressure on members of parliament – that at night … uninvited guests come to party members. Well, journalists… some journalists who were with me, they saw during the day that one MP was just beaten in front of the parliament building by these guys with guns in the streets.
Ashton: Yes.
Paet: So all this mess is still here. And, of course, this Olga and other representatives of civil society were absolutely sure that people would not leave the streets until they saw real reforms begin. So it’s not enough just to change the government. So that’s the main impression. So, from the point of view of the EU, and also of Estonia, of course, we must be ready to combine this financial package. Also with others. This is a very clear signal that not only is there a change of power, but they are talking about real reforms – you know, real actions to increase the level of trust. Otherwise, everything will end badly. Because the Party of Regions also said that, well, we’ll see if people from the eastern part of Ukraine really wake up and start demanding their rights. Some people are with me, they were also in Donetsk. There people said that they can’t wait. How long will the occupation of Ukraine in Donetsk last. That this is a real Russian city, and they would like to see now that, well, Russia will take over. So here… short impressions.
Ashton: No, very, very interesting. I just had a big meeting here with Olli Rehn [EU Commissioner for Economic and Monetary Affairs] and other commissioners about what we can do. We are working on financial packages – short-term, medium-term, long-term. Everything, starting with how quickly we get the money. How we support the IMF. And how do we get sort of… investment packages and business leaders and so on. On the political side, we worked [?determined?] what resources we have, and I proposed to civil society and Yatsenyuk [Arseniy Yatsenyuk became prime minister, after the “new coalition” (as of the date of the conversation) became the interim Ukrainian government ] and Klitschko [Vitali Klitschko, one of the leaders of the new coalition, a former boxer, and now the mayor of Kiev], and everyone I met yesterday: “We can offer you people who know how to make political and economic reforms. The countries closest to Ukraine are undergoing cardinal changes, carrying out major political and economic reforms. So we have a lot of experience to give you, which we are happy to give.” I told the people on the Maidan: “Yes, you want real reforms, but first you have to go through the short term. So you need to find ways in which you can put in place an anti-corruption process, get people together to work together until the election, and so that you can have confidence in the process. So we have a lot of experience to give you, which we are happy to give.” I told the people on the Maidan: “Yes, you want real reforms, but first you have to go through the short term. So you need to find ways in which you can put in place an anti-corruption process, get people together to work together until the election, and so that you can have confidence in the process. So we have a lot of experience to give you, which we are happy to give.” I told the people on the Maidan: “Yes, you want real reforms, but first you have to go through the short term. So you need to find ways in which you can put in place an anti-corruption process, get people together to work together until the election, and so that you can have confidence in the process.
Then I said to Olga “Although you are not the Minister of Health now, but you need to think about becoming the Minister of Health in the future, because people like you will be needed to be able to get and make sure that [?reforms ?] occur. I also told them, “If you just barricade the buildings now and the government doesn’t work, we won’t be able to get the money because we need partners.
Paet: Exactly.
Ashton: And I said to the leaders of the opposition, who will soon be the government: “You need to turn to the Maidan. You need to, you know, interact with them. You also need to bring regular cops back to the streets with a new sense of their role so that people feel safe. I told the representatives of the Party of Regions: “You must go and lay flowers on the people who died. You have to show that you understand what happened to you… what happened here. Because what you have experienced is the anger of people who saw how Yanukovych lived, who saw corruption. And they assume you’re all the same.” And, also people who have lost people and who feel like, you know, he ordered this to happen. I think quite a few people in the city are shocked. Lots of sadness and upheaval and it can go in a very strange way
Paet: It is. And, in fact, the only politician who spoke positively from civil society was Poroshenko [on May 25, Petro Poroshenko, known as the “Chocolate King,” was elected president of Ukraine].
Ashton: Yes, yes.
Paet: Therefore, he needs to have some kind of, how to say, trust among all these Maidanists and civil society. And, in fact, what was quite disturbing, the same Olga said that, well, everything indicates that there are people killed by snipers on both sides, among policemen, and also among people from the streets, that they were alone and the same snipers who killed people on both sides.
Ashton: Well, it is… yeah.
Paet: Well, then she also showed me some pictures. She said that as a doctor, she could tell that it was the same handwriting, the same type of bullets, and it really worries that now there is a new coalition and they don’t want to investigate what exactly happened. So now the understanding is becoming stronger and stronger that they were behind the snipers … it was not Yanukovych, but someone from the new coalition.
Ashton: I think we want to investigate. I mean, I didn’t raise this issue. It is interesting. Wow.
Yes, sure. So it was [?really?] alarming that if life starts very intensively now, it has already discredited this new coalition from the very beginning.
Ashton: I mean, they have to be careful, they have to demand big changes, but they have to let the Rada work. If the Rada does not work, then they will have complete chaos. So, that’s all, you know, being an activist and being a doctor is very, very important. But that also means they are not politicians. And somehow they have to adapt over the next few weeks, how the country is actually going to be run. And then we organize elections, and everything can change. And that, I think, will be quite an ass … I plan to return early next week, probably on Monday.
Paet: It’s very important that now, well, people from Europe and also [from the West] are showing up there, so it’s absolutely…
Ashton: Well, [?Verislav?] is going with the Visegrad Group [an alliance of the Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland and Slovakia] to be on Friday. Friday-Saturday. William Haig (inaudible) on Sunday. I will be back again on Monday.
Paet: Yes, I also heard that the Canadian minister is meeting on Friday. And yesterday William Burns [U.S. Deputy Secretary of State] was there, so we met…
Ashton: Yes, I saw Bill.
Paet: I also met with Burns yesterday in Kiev.
Ashton: Yes, good. Yeah, I didn’t know John Baird was going. I will definitely contact him. OK my friend. It was nice to talk to you.
Paet: Well, thanks for those comments, and I wish you well. Good Australia.
Ashton: Yes. What?
Paet: Good Australia. Enjoy!
Ashton: I’m not going there. I have to put it off because I’m going to do more for Ukraine.
Paet: OK, good, good.
Ashton: It’s alright my friend…
Paet: OK. Thank you. Thank you. And all the very best to you. Till.
Newsessentials Blog 
Posted on February 5, 2022
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