Mexican officials and advisers anticipate a drastic change in relations with the U.S. U.S. in case Donald Trump wins in November.
ByReporting from Mexico City
9 May 2024 Lea en Español en español
They study their interviews, prepare for mass deportations and draw up policy proposals to bring to the negotiating table.
As Mexico heads to its presidential election, scheduled for next month, officials and campaign aides are also preparing for other elections: a U.S. vote that could bring Donald Trump back to the presidency.
The Times
The last time Trump took office, his victory surprised many of America’s allies, and his diplomacy bolstered by threats forced them to adapt on the fly. Now they have time to anticipate how a Trump victory could change the relationships that President Joe Biden has tried to normalize, and are preparing hard for a commotion.
For some, what predominates is the memory of negotiating with Trump during his tenure, when he used extreme threats against Mexico.
What was required at the time to reach an agreement with Trump’s team? “Time, patience, cold blood,” former Mexican Foreign Secretary Marcelo Ebrard said in an interview. If you understand this, you can win. It’s not easy.
In Mexico, officials say working with Trump could be even more complex this time. The former president has promised the largest deportation operation in the history of the United States, launched the idea of imposing 100 percent tariffs on Chinese cars manufactured in Mexico and promised to deploy the U.S. Special Forces. U.S. to, he said, to wage war against cartels.
Behind the scenes, the Mexican government holds talks with people close to Trump’s campaign on some proposals, such as the former president’s threat to impose a universal “arancel” on all imported goods, and works to resolve trade disagreements before the U.S. elections, according to a senior Mexican official who was not authorized to give statements in public.
The goal, according to the official, is to leave the next Mexican government as prepared as possible to interact with Trump.
Mexico’s president, Andrés Manuel López Obrador, forged a close working relationship with Trump in the early years of his administration, despite Trump’s repeated threats to impose tariffs on Mexico and make the country pay for a border wall.
But López Obrador will leave the presidency when his term ends after the June presidential elections, and the polls give a significant advantage to his protégé, Claudia Sheinbaum, former head of government of Mexico City.
The tacit rules of the relationship between López Obrador and Trump were that Mexico did everything it could on migration and the White House let it move forward with its national priorities without meddling. That seemed to work for both of us.
The Mexican leader has praised Trump for respecting Mexican sovereignty. Trump, for his part, has called the Mexican president “friend,” and a great president.
But it’s unclear how Trump would relate to either of the two leading presidential candidates.
“With President Trump or President Biden we’re going to have good relationships,” Sheinbaum said in an interview. We’re always going to defend Mexico and Mexicans in the United States, and we want a relationship of equality.
Xóchitl Gálvez, the main opposition candidate, said she too could work with either as president.
“Obviously I prefer to work with a gentleman of respectful and courteous treatment like Joe Biden,” Gálvez told The New York Times. “But in my professional and political life I have also dealt with different versions of masculinities,” he added. It wouldn’t be the first time, he said, to confront a character who has a complicated masculinity. So I can work perfectly with Donald Trump.
Campaign attendants are drawing up plans for either outcome.
“I’m not worried, but we’re going to be prepared,” said Juan Ramón de la Fuente, a member of Sheinbaum’s team, referring to a possible Trump victory. We’re getting ready for both scenarios.
With regard to migration, we have to be more effective in reducing irregular crossings, said De la Fuente, who was recently Mexico’s ambassador to the United Nations and is seen as a potential candidate for foreign secretary in case Sheinbaum becomes president.
But he also pointed out that U.S. laws work as a not very healthy incentive that helps boost migration, because at the time you touch land, you are a candidate for asylum.
Some Mexican officials believe that the country has more influence in its relations with the United States than in the past. The White House has relied heavily on López Obrador to curb migration on the southern border of the United States. And that cooperation has given Mexico a significant influence on one of the most important issues of American policy.
“In structural terms, Mexico is gaining more power over the United States,” Ebrard said. The Mexican economy has worked relatively well in recent years, and, for the United States, its factories have become an interesting alternative to China.
“Any U.S. management needs it for its immigration policy,” he said, referring to Mexico. Geopolitical tension in a way favors a stronger Mexico.
Ebrard, who is part of Sheinbaum’s campaign and is seen as a possible member of his cabinet if he wins, led negotiations with Trump’s advisers when he was in the White House.
In terms of trade, its priority was labor reform, the increase in wages in Mexico, Ebrard said. That was acceptable to Mexico, because López Obrador’s government had campaigned on a left-wing political platform and had pledged to raise Mexicans’ wages.
With regard to migration, the actual request was much more difficult to meet. Trump wanted a drastic reduction in border crossings, Ebrard said, but he disagreed with Mexico on investing in ways to address the causes that lead people to migrate.
Still, Mexico could pressure the government to take its approach into account, he said.
In December 2018, the Trump administration joined a Mexico-led effort and committed billions of dollars in private and public investments for Central America, although months later the former president mobilized to cut off all aid to the region in response to migrant caravans.
The Mexican government has been criticized for obtaining very little in exchange for accepting tens of thousands of asylum seekers returned to Mexico with the Trump-era policy known as “Stay in Mexico.” But his six-year term also had clear victories, including the renegotiation of the free trade agreement with the United States and Canada.
Gálvez argued that the government missed the opportunity to guarantee more rights for undocumented Mexicans in the United States and protect migrants stranded in Mexico, but also praised the trade agreement.
“In that sense, Mexico won, won well with Trump,” Gálvez said, adding that Trump never went so far as to impose the tariffs he threatened. It didn’t turn out so bad.
Natalie Kitroeff is the head of the Times correspondent for Mexico, Central America and the Caribbean. More from Natalie Kitroeff
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Posted on May 23, 2024
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