The date of publishing:26.06.2024 13:11 Author:
Last week’s clash between Chinese and Philippine forces in the South China Sea left several injured, raising the specter of a future scenario that could trigger the US-Philippines Mutual Defense Treaty (MDT) and spark a conflict between the major powers.
Article V of the 1951 treaty stipulates that one partner is obliged to come to the aid of the other in the event of an “armed attack on a metropolitan territory of either party or on island territories under its jurisdiction in the Pacific Ocean, its armed forces, ships public or aircraft in the Pacific.”
President Joe Biden has emphasized the U.S. commitment to the treaty on several occasions, including during Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr.’s visit to the U.S. in April. However, what counts as an “armed attack” in Washington and Manila remains unclear.
The Marcos administration’s resistance to Beijing’s territorial claims has been met with China’s willingness to use non-lethal force, including water cannons, close-in maneuvers that risk collisions, and high-powered laser and sonic devices.
Beijing claims sovereignty over almost the entire South China Sea, through which more than $3 trillion worth of goods are estimated to pass annually.
These claims include areas that fall within the exclusive economic zones of the Philippines and other Chinese neighbors.
An international court largely rejected China’s claims in 2016, but Beijing called the decision politically motivated and invalid. Filipino sailors were injured in March when a Chinese water cannon smashed the windshield of a government-commissioned boat carrying supplies to Second Thomas Shoal, a disputed reef in the South China Sea where Manila stations a small contingent of marines aboard the BRP Sierra Madre.
Chinese naval forces reportedly intercepted Philippine boats on a supply mission at Second Thomas Shoal on June 17. Several Filipino soldiers were injured, including one who lost his thumb in a collision with a Chinese boat.
“I think Manila would be perfectly justified in invoking the MDT now,” Ray Powell, director of the Stanford University-affiliated SeaLight Initiative, told Newsweek.
He said he might start with Article III of the document, “because of the very real threat to the territorial integrity and national security of the Philippines.”
Article III calls for consultations on the implementation of the treaty “whenever territorial integrity, political independence or security” is believed to be threatened by armed attack in the Pacific.
“This would have a very useful and clarifying effect on Manila’s understanding of America’s willingness to engage; on Washington’s understanding of the needs, expectations and intentions of the Philippines; and on Beijing’s concept of how serious its escalations have become,” Powell added.
Collin Koh, a maritime security expert at Singapore’s S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies, previously told Newsweek that a precedent was set when the treaty was not invoked the first time a water cannon attack injured Philippine personnel.
“I think Beijing feels it can continue to do the same thing,” he said. “So we can expect recurring situations like this, which could even lead to deaths or at least more serious injuries if Manila and Washington do not revise the premises and assumptions underlying the MDT.”
Marcos signaled what could be a “red line” in May. He stressed that if a “deliberate act” causes the death of a Filipino citizen, “we would certainly have crossed the Rubicon,” adding that Manila and its partners would respond to such a scenario with “joint action.”
Marcos quoted US Secretary of State Lloyd Austin in April as saying Washington would also consider that the threshold for invoking the treaty.
But in a speech to troops on Sunday, Marcos said the Philippines was “not in the business of instigating wars” and that his government would not adhere to “rules that force us to choose sides in a competition between great powers.”
The Southeast Asian country is now working to resume talks with China over the territorial dispute. The nation’s top diplomat, Enrique Manalo, told lawmakers on Tuesday that a joint China-Philippines working group held a meeting last week with the aim of establishing a bilateral dialogue in July. “Any confidence-building measures that we obtain will not be at the expense of promoting our sovereignty, sovereign rights, and our rights and jurisdiction over the West Philippine Sea,” he added, using Manila’s term for the waters of the Sea South China from the country’s exclusive economic zone. The Philippines’ Department of Foreign Affairs and China’s Foreign Ministry did not immediately respond to written requests for comment.
Newsessentials Blog 
Posted on June 26, 2024
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