All countries with nuclear weapons are modernizing their arsenals, and more and more warheads are ready for quick use.
Publication: 17/06/2024 21:00
There are 12,000 nuclear warheads in the world. In the photo: Chinese intercontinental missiles capable of carrying them
Photo: GREG BAKER / AFP
Andrzej Łomanowski
“While the overall number of nuclear warheads is declining as Cold War-era weapons are gradually dismantled, we unfortunately continue to see the number of operational nuclear warheads increase year over year,” said Dan Smith, head of SIPRI.
All nuclear states have increased their arsenals ready for use. Over the last year, nine countries with nuclear weapons (five official ones – the USA, Russia, France, Great Britain, China and four “illegal” ones – India, Pakistan, North Korea, Israel) sent new warheads to military units.
Several thousand warheads in reserve and ready
The atomic pyramid looks like this. There are over 12,000 worldwide. nuclear warheads of various types, including over 9.5 thousand at the beginning of this year. of them were “in reserve”, stored in distant warehouses. But more than 3,900 could be placed on missiles and planes to deliver them to their targets. This is 60 warheads more than a year earlier. Over 2.1 thousand of them (about 1/6 of nuclear arsenals) were “in a state of increased combat readiness”.
The US and Russia own 90 percent. resources of these weapons. Experts believe that “the state of their forces is stable,” but Moscow has put 36 new warheads into use – more than half of all new weapons that have been brought into “operational use” during the year.SIPRI concluded that there is “no convincing visual evidence” of the transfer of Russian tactical nuclear weapons to Belarus. In 2023, the Kremlin announced such a maneuver.
China, which does not hide the fact that it is modernizing and developing its nuclear forces at the fastest rate in the world, is breathing down the backs of the two leaders. They increased the number of warheads from 410 last year to 500 this year. They are still no match for the US and Russia in terms of volume, but for the first time in peacetime they have placed a small number of payloads on missiles on combat duty.
“Depending on the decision on how China’s nuclear forces will be structured by the end of the decade, they could have as many intercontinental ballistic missiles as Russia and the US. Although the total number of Chinese warheads will be much smaller than in these countries,” SIPRI analysts write.
Legally and secretly. Europe and Asia are increasing their arsenals
Pakistan and India are also developing their arsenals. The first country is building weapons systems that could hit India, but the second is starting to invest not only in weapons that deter its Muslim neighbor, but also in long-range missiles. A visible sign that Delhi is closely monitoring the development of its Chinese competitor’s nuclear forces.
European countries – Great Britain and France – are also increasing their arsenals. Data on the arsenals of North Korea and Israel are only estimates due to the secrecy surrounding them. The development of Israeli forces is deduced only from the increase in plutonium production at the nuclear center in Dimona in the Negev Desert. Israel is also among the countries that the International Campaign to Abolish Nuclear Weapons (ICAN) suspects of increasing spending on nuclear forces by 1/3 since 2018 (as do, among others, India, Pakistan and North Korea). Pyongyang reportedly already has 50 warheads and radioactive material for another 90. It is still subject to UN sanctions, which prohibit it from building nuclear and missile forces.
ICAN believes that nine countries spent a total of $91 billion last year. on their nuclear arsenals, more than half of them the US.
A new kind of bullying
“The role of nuclear forces is growing as geopolitical relations deteriorate,” SIPRI experts conclude.
But the importance (as a means of deterrence) of a special type of these forces – tactical nuclear weapons – is growing. Korean communists are investing in it. Just before the invasion of Ukraine, Russia conducted strategic nuclear exercises as a warning to the West. But since the fall of 2022, the Kremlin has considered or publicly threatened to use tactical weapons against Ukraine. – We cannot rule out anything if Russia finds itself on the brink of defeat – says the head of the Ukrainian Security Council, Oleksandr Lytvynenko, about this possibility.
Last year, Moscow signed an agreement with Lukashenko to place tactical weapons in Belarus, although SIPRI doubts whether it has been implemented. But two Russian military districts (including Leningrad, bordering NATO countries) and the Belarusian army were involved in the current exercises with this weapon.
Eventually, Russia got the inevitable response. Alliance Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg announced that member states are in talks to transfer more warheads from warehouses to units.
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Source: Rzeczpospolita
Newsessentials Blog 
Posted on June 21, 2024
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