Unity news …
Since the Jeddah meeting, has not issued an official position of Hezbollah from Lebanon’s participation in the coalition that the United States is working on the establishment of the fight against terrorism. Quoted sources close to the party’s observations on speeding the Lebanese government to participate in the Jeddah meeting, quickly been dashed by the words of Foreign Minister Gebran Bassil on the sidelines of the Paris conference last Monday that Lebanon will not enter into any axis, did not give a mandate to the Americans beat Daash in Lebanon.
Clearly, the party, as a party to resist his symbolism in the Arab and Muslim worlds, can not be with the United States in the same trench, even if these are at war with the bitterest enemies. Enemy of my enemy, here, can not be my friend. He refuses to make Lebanon a part of this coalition, it is not an objection to the fight against terrorism, but refused to be a war of this kind, led by an American, because it will end up replacing the American occupation of stark terror seeks to compensate for the loss of American strategy to withdraw from Iraq.
. The presence of the Americans and their allies, from Baghdad to the Syrian countryside, is a prohibitive barrier strategically between Iran and its allies. In short, Americans are seeking to recoup their losses in the strategic region or, at a minimum, Tkhsair axis of resistance and Hezbollah, an essential part of the gains and active strategy.
Likely that the sides of this axis, by implication, would be happy to filter Daash. Will not grieve Iran and Hezbollah to remove one of the existential risks that cause pricing of sectarian strife in the region. Nor the Syrian regime would be uncomfortable for the blow of his way to remove a major threat. Russia will not mind in the eradication of terrorism affect its strategic interests in the region. It also will not harm this axis, on the other hand, the entry and Washington in a long-term conflict with each Salafi movements in the region.
Does this mean sitting on the bank of the river waiting for the passage of the body?
Certainly not. Deep suspicion of American intentions, and questions abound: Is the goal Daash hit or fit? What about other terrorist groups as a Front victory which also included on the list of terrorism? What is the next step? What are the reasons for the reluctance with Turkish Ankara known role in the smuggling of weapons and fighters, and are waiting for Turkey’s head of the Syrian regime a consolation prize? What is the price you waiting for Saudi Arabia in return for their enthusiasm to engage in a war against the owners thought is basically thinking?
According to informed sources, when Iran feels threatened American on its borders, and Syria threatened existential on its own, and Russia threatened strategic interests, should then recall the declared positions that are still repercussions list, most notably the position of the Secretary General of Hezbollah, Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah, the summer of 2013, when he emphasized that the Damascus allies will not allow its fall in the hands of America, warning of dire consequences for any American war on Syria.. This commitment applies today as it was on its declaration applies. . As that Tehran would not accept in any way the presence of American troops on its borders has previously fought a fierce war to oust Iraq from America. It is, today, ready to re-ball. While confirming Moscow, and emphasizes, is the limited support for President Bashar al-Assad. Analogy to these positions, will not allow this axis of squandering the gains of the new alliance, or, at least, will work with all his energy to reduce its losses.
What is the next step?
Recent statements of the Supreme Leader of the Islamic Revolution Ali Khamenei personally rejected an American offer to discuss cooperation against Daash was the first indication of this team is ready to go to the front. . No words about the feasibility of cooperation with the state of their hands dirty for the Americans say: The promised promised. . On the ground, began the Iranians, since the attack on Mosul, work to accommodate the tide Aldaasha. The first step was to unify the position of the National Alliance (the forces of the Shiite majority) of the crisis, and then seek to quickly formulate a general position includes Kurds and the rest of the components of the power, which precipitated in discussing the formation of a new government with a concession Tehran Nuri al-Maliki as prime minister. This coincided with the reorganization of the work of some teams of military forces, allowing them, in the event of any external interference, to deploy in any area is released from an Iraqi authority Daash, and do not keep it in the hands of any groups outside the authority of the state.
Also, Americans have heard, clearly, and through several channels, that the course of things since the NATO summit in Wales, passing through the Jeddah meeting, all the way to the Paris conference, the movement looks like an elephant in a porcelain shop. This path, if continued, will waste a lot of things in his way, in the forefront of the nuclear negotiations and Iran’s recent rapprochement with Saudi Arabia’s what the repercussions of his Yemeni and Iraqi, Lebanese, and elsewhere. . With the start of international contacts to form a coalition against Daash, told the Iranians and the Russians concerned Arab and Western that exceeded spammers official of the States in this confrontation will take place matters a lot, has made it difficult to limit the crisis in Syria and Iraq, suggesting a coordination mechanism involving Syria and Iraq to run this campaign, which is Western diplomats interpreted as an Iranian proposal to take over Baghdad coordination with Damascus if the coalition refuses to deal with the Syrian regime.
Moscow and Tehran have warned, too, away from the goal of Western operations for Daash, especially with the wave of promotion to receive the moderate opposition areas that are subject to the authority of Daash. Americans clearly tell the Russians that they decided to raise the level of military support to Damascus, so that a source familiar with the warning that saw Washington Syrian authorities of exposure to aircraft in Syrian airspace, but is aimed primarily at Russia and Iran. Americans know, too, that Russia raised the level of military support for the Syrian army, and that logo in Moscow today is to fill stores Syrian army with all its needs in its war against armed groups, and what helped him to fortify their positions in the face of any American strikes, intentionally or by mistake.
Does this mean that the confrontation inevitable?
There may be the possibility of understanding, albeit indirect, on the borders of the process and to provide assurances that it would not target the Syrian regime, and not to keep American troops on the Iranian border, or to establish a buffer zone in the central regions of the Sunni Iraqi prevent communication between Tehran and its allies, and will not achieve quality gains for Turkey and Saudi Arabia.
Talk about a deadline of 30 days before the start of the war raises questions: Is it to secure more cohesion within the Western alliance of the Gulf, which is still a mystery, or to prepare for the military, or to give an opportunity for communication with the other party?
. May be for all these reasons together. . On the White House to measure the balance of things went pleasing to the contradictions within the coalition. Military Americans want answers from the White House about the corridors of the flight will not be possible to secure them without talking with the Syrian and Iranian and Russian. The sources say there are indications that the contacts have already begun coordinating between Syrians and Americans across the Norwegian embassy in Damascus. . Iraqi National Security Adviser Faleh al-Fayad, according to the same sources, visited President Assad envoy American rather than Iraqi. Air sorties recent Syrian and Asthdavath exact locations Daash indicate clear coordination with the Americans, even through a third party. In the opinion of sources, like a certain level of coordination, albeit indirect, that dispels many of the concerns of the other team.
American, in the end, a pragmatist, has not been reluctant to give up the gains and allies if it is in so as to ensure greater protection for the lives of his soldiers. But if he decides to cram axis contrast between the two options Ahlihama over, two terrorism or occupation, so it pays to the axis of this great confrontation for making a third option.
Lebanon’s participation toppled announcement Baabda
. Supposed to submit Foreign Minister Gebran Bassil, in front of the Council of Ministers in its meeting this afternoon, gave a presentation on his participation in a protective Jeddah and Paris relating to mobilize Arab and international support for the strike organizing the Islamic state.
This offer comes after the atmosphere that accompanied the post Basil and sockets recorded by circles close to Hezbollah on this review. And also come after foldable Party raises the possibility that this file on the cabinet table, because the council was not privy to the full in the form of visits.
According to informed sources in the Change and Reform bloc, the showdown took place recently across the channels of communication known between Hezbollah and the bloc about the causes of post Basil in two meetings, has developed a concerned party in the image of the reasons and goals of participation and foreign minister in the two conferences, including the fact that Lebanon was invited to attend conferences formally, not supposed absence at a time when the issue of terrorism in the form of direct, and storming Daash the Lebanese border, and the kidnapping of soldiers and stir security problems in more than one area. As well as select foreign minister clearly need to be fighting terrorism under the roof of the international community and a clear decision from the UN Security Council, as well as the need to respect the sovereignty of any state may conduct strikes on its soil.
. In the opinion of the bloc that toppled this review irrevocably declare Baabda and this is not something simple and self-distancing policy. Full participation in conferences of this size and placed in Lebanon solid international attention after he put himself at the center of the equation as a party affected by terrorism.